ALABAMA
2nd – Open Seat (R) – Dothan and Northwest Montgomery.
When Terry Everett announced his retirement he most likely expected a decent primary for an eventual successor. What resulted was a nasty Republican primary between state representative Jay Love and state senator Harri Anne Smith. The divisive primary was purely concentrated on social issues: immigration, guns, gambling, and moral character. In her quest to defeat Love, Smith developed new friendships, including Enterprise developer Ronnie Gilley, country music singer George Jones, and the Club for Growth. The primary’s turning point occurred after Love paid a visit to Gilley, asking for financial support. Gilley rejected the plea and instead co-hosted a fundraiser for Smith. Angered by the rejection, Love attacked Smith for accepting gambling money (Gilley is developing a bingo hall in the district). George Jones, angered by the accusations being leveled against Gilley (a wannabe country star), joined the fray by appearing in commercials that attacked Love. While the NRCC, which has made no secret of its support for Love, due to Smith’s perceived weakness, remained silent throughout, others could not. Everett and Governor Riley, surprised by the bitterness of the primary, offerred to be brokers of peace between the two campaigns, yet independent commercials by Jones and Gilley continued to attack Love. Gilley then leveled an accusation of Love not being a Christian (a similar tactic was used, rather successfully, against Broun’s primary opponent in Georgia). The Republican slugfest ended with Love prevailing in the run-off. The Democratic nominee is Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright. Both candidates hail from the Montgomery area of the district. However, the successful candidate will be the one that carries the conservative vote of the Wiregrass (Dothan) region. Love currently has the advantage here due to an extended primary and personal spending. He also needs to mend the friction with Smith’s supporters, who were concentrated in the Wiregrass region. If history is an indicator, Love should not have a problem winning back Smith supporters (Sali and Lamborn did likewise following divisive primaries). Bright seems most likely to discuss economic activity, whereas Love will be the social issue candidate. African Americans, a reliable Democratic bloc compose 29% of the electorate. Due to Love’s primary spending, much of which was personal funding, Bright has more cash on hand. Bright must immediately recognize this advantage and begin to identify himself in the Wiregrass region and secure Smith’s supporters early on, prior to Love achieving both. Bright’s executive experience as mayor is more credible in the Wiregrass when it comes to discussing increases in plant closures and unemployment. One sign of concern for Republicans would be if the NRCC is spending heavily here in October. If Bright defines himself and changes the election from social to economic issues, then he clearly has the advantage. Until that occurs Love has a slight advantage.
Rating: Leans Republican
3rd – Rogers (R) – Anniston, Auburn, and Southern Montgomery.
Following the 2000 Census, the Democratic state legislature created this district with the intent of a Democrat being elected. That did not happen and Republican Mike Rogers has occupied the seat since. Even though the district is one-third African American, Rogers has never faced a serious opponent since his narrow win in 2002. Attorney Josh Segall is oppossing the incumbent this year and has funds that will force Rogers into defense. Rogers won in the past by winning over a decent amount of African American voters in counties dominated by African Americans. There is no guarantee that he will have equal luck this year. While the race may become more competitive, the question remains whether or not it can reach an equally competitive nature as in 2002. Rogers reputation has shown signs of deterioration, yet it has yet to reach the imminent danger range. The race is considered competitive due to the demographics of the district and the fundraising strength of the Democratic nominee, yet the two alone cannot defeat Rogers. Democrats could only hope that Republican conservatives assist them by staying home while African Americans vote straight party ticket, thereby creating a surprise upset election night.
Rating: Likely Republican
5th – Open Seat (D) – Huntsville, Decatur, and Florence.
The Huntsville based seat has a lower percentage of minorities (only 16% African American) than all of Alabama’s other congressional districts, including all of the seats held by Republicans. Even with this fact the seat has remained in Democratic hands for decades. Democrat Bud Cramer has decided to retire, leaving what normally would be classified a safe seat, a little more vulnerable. The two challengers are Democratic State Senator Parker Griffith, whose district lies wholly in Madison County. Approximately 48% of all voters live in Madison County, thereby providing Griffith with home field advantage. The Republican nominee is Wayne Parker, who lost twice in the past against Bud Cramer. Parker’s past loses may be attributed to him being too conservative for the district. The district has consistently elected Democrats on the state level and for Congress, preferring Blue Dog Democrats over ultra-conservative radicals. Parker’s failure to avoid a primary against a lesser known challenger and his mediocre cash on hand may eventually lead the NRCC to abandon this race and spend funds elsewhere.
Rating: Likely Democrat
ALASKA
AL – Young (R) – Statewide.
An incumbent with thirty-five years of service and the third highest seniority amongst Republicans finds himself in the fight for survival. Many years previous, very few would have believed that Don Young’s retirement may actually be forced rather than planned. In fact, the closest re-election race he had was in 1990. Since those eighteen years have past Young has charted his own course. While considered a vigorous fighter on behalf of Alaska, Young has been willing to utilize questionable techniques in achieving success and attacking colleagues within his own party. The dynamic duo (Stevens and Young) have long been infamous for bringing earmarks galore to Alaska. Stevens as chairman of the Appropriations Committee and Young as chairman of the Transportation Committee (neither hold those same chairmanships today). Young’s challenge this year is not only a Democrat, but also two fellow Republicans. Lt. Governor Sean Purnell, at the likely urging of popular Governor Sara Palin, has decided to challenge Young. The third, Gabrielle LeDoux, may be the deciding factor in the race, depending on who she takes more votes from. The challenge itself has created a split between the conservative and moderate wings of the Alaska Republican Party. However, the split is nothing new. Palin, a moderate, successfully defeated Murkowski, a conservative, in the race for governor. The split is creating anomosity between the reform side of the party and the establishment side of the party. Young has funds on hand to defend his seat, yet a large amount of this spending is going toward legal fees. While most give Young little chance of surviving the inter-party challenge, the eventual victor will face (unofficial) Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz is facing a challenge by two other fellow Democrats. Infamous for “the bridge to nowhere” Young may finally realize that the bridge does indeed lead somewhere: a one-way trip back home. Short of his own bridge, Ketchikan can name its airport after him for the effort (Ted Stevens has his own namesake in Anchorage).
There are two possible scenarios here: If Young wins a three-way primary, then expect the anti-Young sentiment to continue into the general election. If Young loses, there will be division from Young supporters, yet not as great as if he wins.
Rating: Likely Democrat (Young wins)/Leans Republican (Young loses)
ARIZONA
1st – Open Seat (R) – Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Prescott.
The recent indictment of Rick Renzi has all but left the Republican Party in disarray here. The Republican field is crowded with five nominees, yet only Sydney Hay, a failed candidate from the past with strong libertarian views, is competitive in the primary field. The Democratic primary features four candidates, yet only two have been competitive. State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is the favorite of the DCCC, yet former television reporter Mary Kim Titla, has proven a competitive challenger. Kilpatrick has raised more funds than any candidate, she also represents a large segment of the district in the state legislature, including the principal city and Democratic bastion of Flagstaff. However, an asset for Titla is her American Indian background. The Navajo Nation is the second most reliable Democratic base within the district. The lone Republican stronghold is Prescott. The demographics of the district are favorable to either Democrat, especially when presented against a nominee that Republicans did not even consider. However, it is highly likely that Kilpatrick will win the upcoming primary. Voter registration trends have become favorable to Democrats. In fact, any Democratic nominee would only need to capture 12% of the independent/crossover vote in order to win outright (based on total Democratic participation). Also working against any Republican, especially a candidate with radical ideology, is the population demographics (4 out of 10 voters are American Indian or Hispanic). The pivotal area for deciding this race will be Pinal County (a third of all votes come from here), evenly split between both parties. Past electoral statistics demonstrate that Hay may be too radical for the electorate here, especially one which is growing Hispanic. Past wins by Renzi relied on splitting the American Indian vote or even winning it outright (Renzi won the Navajo Nation in 2006). This year that vote is favorable to Kilpatrick who represents a slither of the territory in the legislature. Regardless of whom wins the Democratic primary, this race has vanished from the NRCC radar months ago.
Rating: Likely Democrat
3rd – Shadegg (R) – North Phoenix.
To the surprise of many conservatives John Shadegg announced he was retiring, yet following a petition from his fellow conservatives to remain in Washington, Shadegg quickly rescinded his retirement. An equal display of affection was never conveyed to more moderate Republicans (Pryce, Ramstad, or Walsh). The fact that conservatives in Congress would plead with Shadegg to remain, yet not show equal concern for moderate Republicans, is an ominous sign that the Republican Party is content in moving further to the right. Should the Republicans lose more than a dozen seats this year (as expected) then expect a coup d’etat against Boehner orchestrated by Shadegg and his radical comrades (all dependent of course on Shadegg being re-elected). The changing demographics of the state as a whole is slowly starting to demonstrate itself here. Since redistricting, Democratic registration has increased 10K, independents 22K, and Republicans a dismal 2K. While the district still leans Republican and can still be considered conservative, it has gradually been treading away from the Republicans and toward Democrats. Bob Lord, the Democratic nominee, has had impressive fundraising, even though Shadegg leads overall. A major issue during the campaign will definately be illegal immigration. Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has been criticized for “profiling” Hispanics and arresting US citizens in Hispanic neighborhoods. Recent state legislation that seeks to punish employers harshly has created a divide between past alliances: small businesses and the Republican Party. For his part, Shadegg has been one of the more outspoken critics of illegal immigration. Should illegal immigration become the dominating issue, then Shadegg risks alienating independents, who may view that economic concerns are being ignored. Sharing the ballot with America’s “toughest” sheriff should certainly bring higher voter turnout, however not the turnout which is favorable to any Republican, since Sheriff Arpaio’s opponent is Hispanic.
Rating: Likely Republican
5th – Mitchell (D) – Scottsdale and Tempe.
Following Harry Mitchell’s surprise defeat of JD Hayworth two years ago, many would have expected Republicans to settle on one strong nominee, yet that has not occurred. The result is a Republican field of six candidates, all of whom are poorly financed. Mitchell goes into the election with several factors benefitting him, including a fundraising advantage that is much greater than the combined total raised by all six Republicans, a late primary (Sept. 2nd), and a upswing of Democratic registrations (In the past six years Democratic registration increased 8K while that of Republicans fell more than 10K). Whomever prevails in the Republican primary will find themselves with two immediate obstacles: a dwindling campaign treasury and fractured party unity.
Rating: Democrat Favored
8th – Giffords (D) – Sierra Vista and Western Tucson.
Freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords will face off against State Senate President Tim Bee. Unlike 2006, when Giffords crushed a more radical opponent, Bee is a much greater challenge. An independent candidate perceived as helping Giffords has dropped out and endorsed Bee. The Chamber of Commerce, a Republican friendly organization, has also endorsed Bee. A noticeable advantage for Giffords is in overall fundraising, where she has raised three times that received by Bee. While the district is favorable to Republicans, it will be independents that determine the winner here. A factor which may work against Bee, ultimately hurting him with independents, is his stance on social issues. Unlike the Phoenix suburbs, the areas around Tucson are far less conservative socially. Additional assets which Giffords is likely to exploit are her majority party status and a seat on the Armed Services Committee (2 military installations are in the district). The race definately qualifies in the top ten races featuring an incumbent, yet due to the disarray of the Republican Party and its lack of funds, a slight advantage lies with Giffords.
Rating: Leans Democrat
CALIFORNIA
3rd – Lungren (R) – Citrus Heights, Elk Grove, and Rancho Cordova.
Bill Durston, the Democratic nominee from 2006, is back to challenge Dan Lungren. The only difference from two years ago is that the economy has gone into a downward spiral. Whether or not that alone will assit Durston is unlikely. Ethical questions have also been raised against Lungren, yet if it didn’t work in the neighboring district two years ago, it is unlikely to work here as well. While Democratic registration has been increasing at a much faster pace than Republican registration, the district still favors Republicans. Unless he invites Bush, Cheney, or Doolittle to campaign on his behalf then Lungren should be considered fairly safe.
Rating: Republican Favored
4th – Open Seat (R) – Roseville, South Lake Tahoe, and Susanville.
Scandal plagued John Doolittle has finally decided to retire. Democrat Charlie Brown had already announced his intent to seek the seat prior to Doolittle’s announcement. Republicans have settled on fireband conservative State Senator Tom McClintock. However, Brown and McClintock face two immediate problems. Brown no longer has a scandal plagued incumbent to attack and he is running in a reliably Republican district. McClintock is running in a district six hours from his real home and may find himself struggling to unify the party following a vicious primary against former congressman and moderate Doug Ose. McClintock’s primary victory was a result of extensive spending on his behalf from the Club for Growth. His residence appears to have been a non-issue, yet that is hard to determine since neither candidate actually lived in the district. Probable victory here is whether or not supporters of Ose are willing to vote for McClintock. Currently, that appears unlikely. Should Ose come out and voice support for Brown, then that could spell trouble for McClintock. Due to heavy spending in the Republican primary, Brown has a sizeable cash on hand advantage over McClintock, yet the later knows he can always call on his friends (Club for Growth) to spend on his behalf. Should he lose, this will be McClintock’s second lost at running for US Congress, along with previous loses for State Controller, Governor, and Lieutenant Governor. If McClintock prevails then expect him to be searching for a new home within three years, compliments of a Democratic controlled state legislature. Even though there is a desire to consider the race a toss up, the fact remains that the district re-elected a scandal plagued Doolittle over Brown. It also gave McClintock a sizeable margin of victory over Ose. Such voting patterns may be indicative of the districts hesitency to vote Democratic, even when the Republican challenger may not be the best nominee.
Rating: Leans Republican
11th – McNerney (D) – Pleasanton and Stockton.
In 2006, Democrat Jerry McNerney came back from a 14% deficit in his 2004 loss to Richard Pombo and defeated the scandal plagued Republican. Once considered a reliable Republican district it now leans Republican only narrowly. In fact, during the past six years Democratic registration has increased 15K while Republican registration dropped 4K. Challenging McNerney will be former Assemblyman Dean Andal. A major concern in the district is definately home foreclosures. Stockton and the San Joaquin Valley have the worst foreclosure rate in the nation. It is hardly an issue seen as favorable to any Republican. One issue also capturing headlines has been Andal’s past business dealings with a wealthy developer. The coverage has created a distraction for Andal’s campaign and has begun to raise ethical questions about the candidate himself. McNerney’s fundraising has been two and a half times greater than that of Andal, giving McNerney an impressive cash advantage heading into the election. Many consider the race to be competitive, yet that may prove to be an overstatement post-election. After all, Barbara Boxer won the district, yet narrowly, in 2004.
Rating: Likely Democrat
26th – Dreier (R) – Arcadia and Rancho Cucamonga.
Very few Republicans represent a district as ethnically diverse as this one. The minority population is 25% Hispanic, 17% Asian, and 5% African American. The closest race Dreier faced was in 2004 against a poorly funded Democratic challenger, yet he still won by more than 10%. What was once a 40K Republican registration advantage in 2002 has narrowed to a 26K advantage for Republicans in 2008. Dreier was favored by Speaker Hastert to succeed DeLay, yet was ultimately passed over due to conservatives having “grave” concerns regarding his sexuality, a topic which opponents have sought to bring up against him in past races (the questions still remains unresolved after 28 years). The Democratic nominee is Russell Warner. Unless Warner runs to the right of Dreier (highly unlikely), as was done in 2004, then the advantage lies with Dreier.
Rating: Republican Favored
37th – Richardson (D) – Compton and Long Beach.
A special election was recently held resulting in victory for Laura Richardson, yet what followed afterwards was the unexpected. News that she defaulted on a mortgage would have seriously cost her the special election victory, yet it was the timing of the news (post-election) that saved her. Additional news has been released indicating that her property in Sacramento is actually one of three properties, the others being in Long Beach and San Pedro, in which she has been in default. Following the release of more damaging details, Pete Matthews, a candidate that lost both the special election and primary, has decided to undertake a write-in campaign based on the recent disclosures. Matthews has concentrated his campaign entirely toward Hispanics who comprise 43% of the population, yet it is actually African Americans, who comprise 25% of the population here, where political control lies. Should more damaging details come out then a more credible challenger (Long Beach councilwoman Gerrie Schipske, long considered a foe of Richardson) may present themselves as an alternative write-in Democratic candidate, yet even then an uphill climb would exist.
Rating: Safe Democrat
41st – Lewis (R) – Barstow, Redlands, and Victorville.
California seems to produce ethically challenged Republicans (Cunningham resigned and pled guilty, Doolittle is retiring with indictment looming, and Pombo was defeated). Jerry Lewis is one more to add to this ever expanding list. His massive campaign expenditures, with large amounts going to lawyers, should be an early sign of Lewis in trouble. Yet, with this information known, Democrats have fielded a poor challenger against Lewis. Democratic nominee Tim Prince has relied on personal donations to fuel his campaign. Even with his spending, Lewis has ten times the amount of cash on hand over Prince. Demographically the district strongly favors any Republican, even if that candidate is Lewis. As chairman of the Appropriations Committee Lewis had delivered millions in earmarks to his district, yet questions began to arise regarding several earmarks, it has been alleged that several earmarks were simply transactions done to benefit family, friends, and contributors. While Lewis is considered one of the more corrupt members of Congress, Prince has very few funds to compete within the district. Unless there is an indictment prior to the election, which is highly unlikely since the Bush administration had replaced the US Attorney previously investigating Lewis, expect very little defensive movement on the part of Lewis.
Rating: Republican Favored
46th – Rohrbacher (R) – Costa Mesa and Huntington Beach.
There has been no serious challenge against Dana Rohrbacher since he gained control of the seat. The Democratic nominee is Debbie Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, the largest city in the district. Cook starts the race at a complete disadvantage. Republicans make up a majority of voter registrations in the district. She also has very little money on hand to run any credible campaign against Rohrbacher, one of the more ineffective members of Congress. While Rohrbacher is no stranger to controversy, he has been able to weather the storm, unlike some of his fellow Republicans statewide. The only feasible way in which Rohrbacher is defeated would be if a tidal wave swept over his district on election night, yet there appears to be no such formation at this time.
Rating: Republican Favored
50th – Bilbray (R) – Carlsbad, Clairemont, and Escondido.
Very few members of Congress have been able to transform themselves from moderates into radical conservatives, unless of course you are Brian Bilbray. After his 2000 electoral defeat against Susan Davis, very few could have envisioned that newly registered lobbyist Bilbray would eventually return to Congress. The opportunity came with the resignation of Duke Cunningham (it was already obvious that Bilbray would never be able to defeat Davis in the 53rd district, where he actually lived). While this district has been moving away from Republicans and toward Democrats, the advantage still lies with Republicans. Democratic nominee Nick Leibham has remained competitive with Bilbray in terms of fundraising, yet Bilbray still has the advantage. An issue which Bilbray has exploited since being elected is illegal immigration, yet a liability which Leibham has not failed to uncover is Bilbray’s past support from Big Oil. The DCCC has begun to run radio ads on this issue (an indication that Bilbray may be vulnerable). Bilbray’s dramatic transformation from moderate to radical conservative will eventually expire, either in defeat or with Democratic redistricting, hopefully with him and another ineffective nut, Darrell Issa, finding themselves sharing overlapping districts.
Rating: Likely Republican
52nd – Open Seat (R) – El Cajon, La Mesa, and Spring Valley.
Duncan Hunter felt the nation was interested in his anti-immigration rhetoric and decided to run for President (failing miserably). Now another Duncan Hunter, the son, has decided to run for his father’s seat or maybe it is that the father decided that his son should have the seat. Duncan Hunter, the son, has positions similar to his father, bringing into question whether or not the son is really running his own independent campaign (highly unlikely). The district is Republican and conservative, which explains why a radical such as Duncan Hunter, the father, has been re-elected several times. Duncan Hunter, the son, is an Iraq War veteran. His Democratic opponent is Mike Lumpkin, a Gulf War veteran. If elected, Duncan Hunter, the son, is guaranteed to be a rubber stamp partisan.
Rating: Republican Favored
COLORADO
4th – Musgrave (R) – Fort Collins, Greeley, and Longmont.
Few Republicans have constantly been targeted for defeat as has Marilyn Musgrave. To many she is too conservative and pushes “wedge” issues such as gay marriage. However, her district is Republican and fairly conservative (with the exception of Fort Collins). This year she is once again being targeted for defeat by Democratic nominee Betsy Markey. The closest race she had was in 2006, yet that also featured a Reform Party candidate who took 11% of the vote. Republican registration has dropped 13K in the past four years, however the party continues to maintain a registration advantage. While the state may be treading more Democratic there is no evidence to suggest that the same is occurring here since Democratic registration has also fallen, yet at a lower amount than that of Republicans. The deciding force in this district lies with independents (aka: closet Republicans). Musgrave’s biggest threat would be in a primary from a serious Republican challenger. While Republican in nature, Democrats have won in the district before. Governor Bill Ritter took more votes than Bob Beauprez by winning overwhelmingly in Larimer County (Fort Collins) and keeping Weld County (Greeley) even. Comprised of sixteen counties, many of which are rural, 82% of all votes cast come from Larimer and Weld Counties. Any successful Democrat would have to implement a strategy similar to one utilized by Gov. Ritter, winning overwhelmingly in Larimer and keeping Weld even, yet even Ken Salazar struggled and failed to achieve this.
Rating: Likely Republican
5th – Lamborn (R) – Colorado Springs.
This seat has been in Republican hands for more than thirty years. Therefore, it would normally be considered a safe Republican seat, unless of course the incumbent was controversial and even detested by some in the Republican establishment at home. In 2006, Doug Lamborn won a six person primary, defeating his nearest opponent by less than 1,000 votes. That opponent, Jeff Crank and the third place runner up, Bentley Rayburn, are back for a second challenge. This time Lamborn is the incumbent and largely ignoring his opposition. In fact, his opponents have spent more time arguing amongst eachother, debating who is the stronger challenge to Lamborn. As for debates with either opponent, Lamborn has deemed them unnecessary. A three-way primary definately favors Lamborn, however a two-way primary with Crank (the stronger challenger), would be extremely competitive. Lamborn also has leverage this time around. His recent appointment to the Armed Service Committee is a coveted position within the district. Fort Carson, Peterson AFB, Cheyenne Mountain, and the Air Force Academy are all located here. Even if Lamborn does win the primary, as is currently expected, then he has to deal with Democratic nominee retired Lt. Colonel Hal Bidlack. However, this district is the most conservative in the state and Lamborn has shown success in defeating those with military experience. He defeated his Democratic opponent by almost 19% in 2006.
Rating: Republican Favored
CONNECTICUT
2nd – Courtney (D) – Enfield, New London, and Norwich.
The closest race from 2006 was here in Eastern Connecticut. Democrat Joe Courtney defeated Republican incumbent Rob Simmons by 83 votes. With Simmons defeat, the most Democratic district in the nation represented by a Republican, was back in Democratic hands. Simmons won the district himself in 2000 by defeating a Democratic incumbent. Two years later Simmons faced another tough race, coincidentally his opponent was Joe Courtney, yet Simmons was victorious. Four years later the same race played itself out resulting in a different outcome, this time Courtney would be the victor. Courtney is being challenged this year by retired Groton Navy Base Officer Sean Sullivan. Initially viewed by Republicans as a promising candidate, Sullivan has struggled with fundraising, posting what many would consider “anemic” returns. The district has very liberal leanings around New London (except Groton) and Mansfield, home to the University of Connecticut. Even though Simmons won this district as a Republican in 2000, many contribute this narrow win to a local issue at the time: casinos. The district is home to the two largest casinos in the world: Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun. The casino industry and the University of Connecticut are the two largest employers here. Simmons hold on this seat was unprecedented by all means, yet it is highly unlikely that any Republican will be taking back this seat anytime soon.
Rating: Democrat Favored
4th – Shays (R) – Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Stamford.
The last remaining House Republican in all of New England narrowly escaped defeat in 2006. The DCCC has once again targeted him for defeat and Chris Shays is aware. Unlike the rest of Connecticut, this district has more in common with New York, than with New England. The (unofficial) Democratic nominee is Jim Himes, former VP of Goldman Sachs and an affordable housing executive. Overall the district is diverse in character, including some of the nation’s wealthiest places (Greenwich, Darien, and Westport) and its poorest (Bridgeport). Both candidates have an immediate issue which benefits them. Shays support for tax cuts is welcomed here, considering that the Stamford-Norwalk MSA has the nation’s highest tax burden. Himes work in affordable housing also provides him with a strong issue, since the Stamford-Norwalk MSA is also the most expensive market for renters. While the war in Iraq is not popular here, Shays has been able to win twice against this issue. Lamont also lost this district against Lieberman by 12.5%. Four of the five largest cities are considered moderate (Fairfield, Greenwich, Norwalk, and Stamford). Only Bridgeport is considered a safe Democratic city, yet its overall turnout is less than any of the four moderate cities. Shays seat on Financial Services is an asset for this district since it is home to several financial service companies and hedge funds. Criticized in the past, Shays has started to address another criticial issue in the district: transportation. Considered conservative fiscally, he has taken liberal positions socially. He is pro-choice and pro gay-marriage, two positions shared by Himes. Three obvious issues that differentiate Shays from Himes are the war in Iraq, free trade, and immigration. The later could have a negative impact on Shays this year. Unlike most districts where illegal immigration is politicized, the opposite could be said true here. Hispanics comprise 13% of the population. A defection of Hispanics from Shays with an increase in African American participation could be the necessary combination that leads to his defeat. Himes fundraising is at par with Shays, making this the third competitive race in a row for Shays. A defensive Shays will be the first sign of the race heating up, considering that 55% of the electorate is Democratic.
Rating: Too Close to Call
5th – Murphy (D) – Danbury, New Britain, and Waterbury.
While Democrats were more optimistic about winning in the 2nd and 4th districts, it was a negative television ad run by Republican Nancy Johnson which ultimately sealed her defeat. In her attempt to defeat Chris Murphy, Johnson ran an ad attempting to link Murphy with child predators and drug dealers. As a result, what many considered a close race, turned out as a landslide. Murphy defeated Johnson by 12%. Murphy is now the incumbent and will face State Senator David Cappiello. The district has a Democratic registration advantage, yet it is independents who usually determine the outcome of close races here. Danbury and Waterbury are favorable to Republicans, whereas Meriden and New Britain favor Democrats. Cappiello hails from Danbury, arguably the most conservative area of the district. However Cappiello’s conservatism is unlikely to have appeal beyond Danbury and parts of Waterbury. While many candidates have strayed away from Bush, Cappiello is the exception. He invited Bush to a fundraiser in a district which Bush lost in 2004. Cappiello’s main issue will most likely be illegal immigration since Danbury has been the hotbed for the issue statewide. However, with the changing demographics of Danbury and an increase in Democratic registration, it is likely that the issue could be one which shuts out Republicans for years to come. Murphy has raised twice as much over Cappiello. Many would consider Cappiello too conservative for the district, therefore its highly unlikely that David “Bush” Cappiello will be heading to Washington anytime soon.
Rating: Likely Democrat
DELAWARE
AL – Castle (R) – Statewide
During a Democratic year many would expect that Democrats would field a challenge against Michael Castle. After all, he represents the most Democratic district in the nation currently served by a Republican. Democrats compose 57% of the electorate. Furthermore, African-Americans compose 19% of the state population. The only declared Democrats are poorly financed and will have a difficult time competing against Castle. Unless Castle stumbles, decides to forgo re-election after filing, or Delawareans simply tire of him, then there appears to be no re-election threat on the horizon. At best, this was the worst recruiting oversight for Democrats the whole cycle.
Rating: Safe Republican
FLORIDA
5th – Brown-Waite (R) – Brooksville, Clermont, and Spring Hill.
The foreclosure crisis has hit Ginny Brown-Waite’s district hard, forcing her to abandon her own party and endorse foreclosure legislation. The district is home to the third highest concentration of senior citizens and has one of the largest populations of veterans as well. Issues important to seniors and veterans are paramount here. Due to declines in the stock market, the likelihood is that the portfolios of many seniors have also declined. Due to limited incomes, rising insurance rates, health care costs, and gas prices are most likely to have a more negative effect here than elsewhere. The district is favorable to Republicans, yet if Brown-Waite is perceived as being part of the problem she could be defeated. Ultra-conservative Jim King has forced her into a primary, yet she should easy distinguish him once again. His main issue is coastal drilling, which until lately Brown-Waite had been oppossed to. The Democratic primary is a three-way race, yet John Russell, the 2006 nominee, is considered the early favorite. Brown-Waite is taking a calculated risk if she advocates oil drilling off the coast of her own district. Her fundraising dwarfs both of her opponents, yet there is an indication that the district is becoming restless with Brown-Waite. Her movement away from Bush and the Republican platform on several issues, is an indicator that she finds them to be an unwelcome liability.
Rating: Republican Favored
8th – Keller (R) – Ocala and Orlando.
Changing demographics in the Orlando area has made this seat less safe for Ric Keller. He won re-election by 7% over his Democratic challenger in 2006. This year Keller is once again facing a primary by Todd Long, a far right radical who is accusing Keller of breaking his term limit pledge. Defeating Long will be an easy challenge, yet it is in the general election where Keller may be struggling. However, Democrats are engaged in a three-way primary. The DCCC prefers attorney Michael Smith, yet the 2006 nominee Charlie Stuart, and Alan Grayson, also an attorney, are not willing to cede the nomination to Smith. A contested primary at the end of August will leave the winner very little time to raise additional funds necessary to defeat Keller. While the district remains Republican, it has been treading more Democratic in recent years, forcing Keller to raise funds nonstop. One troubling aspect for Keller is his drop in support, going from 65% to 53% in four years. An early sign of trouble for Keller may be his call for a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq only for him to rescind it months later (most likely under party pressure). The DCCC is certain to target Keller, however the stronger Democratic challenger is not Michael Smith. Charlie Stuart, the nominee in 2006, has more funds on hand and name recognition. Therefore, he is likely to be the Democratic nominee once again. When elected in 2000, Orange County, where the bulk of the residents are located, was solidly Republican, yet it is now Democratic territory. It is now possible that Keller may find himself leaving office with Bush.
Rating: Likely Republican
9th – Bilirakis (R) – Clearwater, New Port Richey, and Plant City.
The seat was targeted in 2006 when Gus Bilirakis’s father retired, yet Bilirakis still won by more than 11%. This year Bilirakis is an incumbent and his Democratic challenger is former Plant City mayor John Dicks. The DCCC viewed the district as being competitive in 2006 and spent heavily, yet that assessment may have been overly optimistic. The reality is that the district has a 30K Republican advantage in registration. The Democratic nominee this year is also a weaker candidate with very little funding, the little which he does have is mostly self-funding. Any expenditures by the DCCC in this district would be wasteful at best. The Republican nature of the district makes it extremely difficult to overcome, especially when the incumbent has maintained a low profile and has very few votes which could be held against him.
Rating: Republican Favored
10th – Young (R) – Saint Petersburg.
While the district has changed through the years, its representation has not. Bill Young is the longest serving Republican in the House. He has managed to retain his seat rather comfortably, even though the district has started to become more Democratic. Both Clinton and Gore won here and Bush won here in 2004 by a mere 1%. It was expected that Young would retire due to his loss of the Appropriations chairmanship and age (he will be 78 if re-elected). However, Young has put to rest any doubts of his re-election. His past re-election bids have never been close. The closest race was in 1994 when he won by 13%. This year Democrats hope that an ex-Republican can do what no Democrat has been able to: defeat Young. Former Dunedin mayor Bob Hackworth is the (unofficial) Democratic nominee. One major issue which is starting to separate the two candidates is offshore drilling. The coastal district is dependent on tourism revenue from its beaches, therefore any mention of offshore drilling is not received lightly. Young appears to have adopted a position similar to Governor Crist in regards to this issue. Before Hackworth can challenge Young he must first overcome a three-way primary. Young’s past victories may be attributed to the massive earmarks which he brought back into the district, yet they have been drastically reduced since he relinquished his chairmanship. The earmarks were viewed as a strength, enabling Young to win over independents and even some Democrats. The demographics here are also considered more favorable to Democrats than those of the neighboring ninth. However, on the bright side for Young, is the poor fundraising of all three Democrats. Another year, and quite possibly, another missed opportunity, in taking out a Republican incumbent.
Rating: Republican Favored
13th – Buchanan (R) – Bradenton and Sarasota.
The controversy from 2006 still lingers here. Republican Vern Buchanan was declared the victor over Democrat Christine Jennings by a small margin of 369 votes. Jennings claimed that the undervote in Sarasota County was much higher than other counties situated in the district. However, even with the challenge, the new Democratic controlled Congress allowed Buchanan to be seated, pending an investigation of the matter. The complaint was subsequently dismissed. Jennings is back for a rematch against Buchanan this year, yet she has 2006 primary loser and 2004 Democratic nominee Jan Schneider running as an independent. Buchanan secured the 2006 nomination by overcoming a challenge by five other Republicans, two of which were strong competitors. Since assuming the seat, Buchanan has adopted a fairly moderate voting record for the district. However, he still has personal baggage which is constantly confronting him, the latest being tax liens against businesses he had owned. Buchanan and the IRS later noted that the tax liens were “clerical” errors. Even with the newest information, he has shown an ability to overcome controversies. He won a rather divisive primary in 2006 when his own personal business dealings became a major issue. The closeness of the race between Buchanan and Jennings could be attributed to the negative information that was aired throughout the Republican primary and to the lack of party unity which followed. The Sarasota based district is strong Republican territory, thereby giving Buchanan an early advantage. Buchanan also has personal wealth, which he used freely in the last election, and could do so this year if necessary. Fundraising for Jennings has been strong, the opposite could be said for the “broke” Schneider. The immediate problem for Jennings is what role Schneider plays in taking votes. For that reason, unless more damaging information surfaces and is strong enough to sink his ship, Buchanan can be considered an early favorite.
Rating: Likely Republican
14th – Mack (R) – Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and Naples.
What is of concern to Connie Mack is not a Democrat (the district is only 27% registered Democrat), rather it’s a fellow Republican running as an independent. State Senator Burt Saunders is being forced out of office due to state term limits. Saunders has high name recognition in the district and is running as a populist, ensuring him the ability to win over independents and cross over Democrats. However, most of the Republicans will likely continue to remain with Mack. Republicans outnumber both Democrats and independents combined, thereby making the task for Saunders much more difficult. A positive for Saunders is that his state district encompasses almost all of the congressional district, thereby giving him immediate name recognition. Mack’s fundraising however is strong and he has not dismissed the challenge which Saunders poses. Making the race even more competitive would be if the Democratic nominee, a poorly financed and unknown, dropped out. This would allow Saunders to win over Democrats much easier and possibly creating a closer race. However, I get the feeling that Mack would rather make a donation to the Democratic nominee’s campaign, rather than watching him abandon the race outright. After all, Mack stomped the same nominee by 29% two years previous.
Rating: Republican Favored
15th – Open Seat (R) – Kissimmee, Palm Bay, and Vero Beach.
Republican Dave Weldon has decided to retire, thereby leaving his central Florida district open. The early favorite on the Republican side is State Senator Bill Posey. The strongest challenger on the Democratic side would be retired USAF veteran Paul Rancatore. However, neither have been declared the official nominee. The district is fairly Republican, yet Kissimmee is an area which favors Democrats. While dependent on tourism, the district can also be said to be dependent on NASA and the jobs it creates locally. Under normal circumstances it would easy to call this a safe seat for Republicans, yet Posey may be too entrenched. This race can best be compared to a similar race from Wisconsin in 2006 between State Assembly Speaker John Gard and physician Steve Kagen. Gard was the insider and Kagen the outsider, yet it was the outsider that seemed to relate more with the people. Rancatore is speaking to the people via his campaign explaining what he intends to do on their behalf. In contrast, Posey talks past tense and what he has accomplished. If this is truly an election based on change, then Posey may not fit the true characteristics of change. While currently not on anyone’s radar, a little investment by the DCCC could truly make this a late developing race.
Rating: Republican Favored
16th – Mahoney (D) – Port Charlotte and Port Saint Lucie.
One of the surprise and unexpected victories of 2006 was Tim Mahoney. He narrowly won against Mark Foley (aka: Joe Negron). Foley was forced to resign due to a scandal which imploded his re-election chances. Due to the timing of his resignation it was too late for the Republican Party to replace his name on the ballot, therefore any vote for Foley was counted as a vote for Negron, the Republican designated nominee. Even with Foley gone, yet still on the ballot, Mahoney managed to pull out a narrow victory in this Republican district. The district is considered more Republican in Charlotte and Martin Counties, while evenly split between the two parties in Palm Beach and Saint Lucie counties. The interior counties surrounding the Everglades are Democratic, yet less dense in population. While winning re-election will be a struggle, Mahoney does start off with a few positives. His fundraising is more than all three of his Republican challengers combined. Amongst the three Republican challengers, none are considered an absolute favorite in winning the primary. The lateness of the primary will leave the eventual winner with very little money going into the general election, thereby leaving a two month window to fundraise and campaign. The primary is also certain to be nasty and will leave wounds that will follow the victor into the election. Looking toward November, Mahoney made what may be considered a smart calculated decision: he didn’t endorse Obama for president. It is no doubt that McCain will win this district overwhelmingly, yet by not endorsing Obama, Mahoney has insulated himself from being associated with Obama. The lack of an endorsement provides the eventual Republican nominee with one less argument to utilize against Mahoney. Based on fundraising and his non-endorsement of Obama, it may be said that Mahoney is running a smart campaign, yet the Republican nature of the district, even without knowing who the Republican nominee will be, makes it a race which will be extremely close in the end.
Rating: Too Close to Call
18th – Ros-Lehtinen (R) – Coral Gables, Key West, and Miami Beach.
The only minority woman in the entire Republican caucus finds herself in a competitive primary for the first time. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has been a staunch supporter of anti-Castro policies since coming to Congress almost twenty years ago. While these policies are supported by an older generation that lived under Castro, there is a newer generation which never lived under Castro, nor in most cases, has even visited Cuba. There is a political divide being created in the Cuban community as a result. Cubans continue to be viewed as the only reliable Republican voters in the Hispanic community, yet what was once seen as a strong Republican tilt has gradually diminished. While the older generation continues to view anti-Castro policies as a decisive factor in securing their vote, the younger generation looks at issues that affect them directly, such as the economy and education. The younger generation also views itself alienated from the Republican Party on several issues, most especially immigration, which many younger Cubans view as a direct attack on Hispanics. While Republicans politicize immigration nationally, Florida is one state where the issue is discussed carefully. The alienation of Cubans, could in itself, keep the Florida Republican Party in the minority for years to come. The Democratic nominee challenging Ros-Lehtinen is Annette Taddeo, a Colombian-American. Realizing the perilous situation she is under, thanks to Republican scapegoating of Hispanics (aka: illegal immigrants), Ros-Lehtinen has raised serious funds for the general election. Taddeo has done likewise, yet continues to be behind. Not only does fundraising provide her with an advantage, yet so do three other issues: Ros-Lehtinen has not taken a radical stance on immigration, unlike her party as a whole. She also has been very liberal in her dealings with the gay community which are a large constituency in South Beach and Key West. Finally, it can be said that another strong advantage for Ros-Lehtinen is that she is Cuban-American. Unlike her two colleagues who are being challenged by fellow Cuban-Americans, she is being challenger by a Colombian-American. Based on this assessment, it is highly likely that the Cuban-American community will want to retain Ros-Lehtinen, considering it only has five voices throughout all of Congress.
Rating: Likely Republican
21st – Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (R) – Hialeah and Kendall.
The most vulnerable of the Republican Party’s only three minorities would most arguably be Lincoln Diaz-Balart. He is facing former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez. Hialeah, the fifth largest city in Florida, is the center of this district. Martinez was mayor of the city for twenty-four years. This is the first serious challenge that Lincoln Diaz-Balart has faced and while voter registration favors Republicans, many of those Republicans can be assumed to be Cuban. As a result, they could end up voting for either candidate. The negatives for Diaz-Balart are Bush and his own party. The positive for Martinez is his popularity and ability to overcome a frivilous indictment twenty years ago. Coincidentally, that indictment came from the husband of Ilena Ros-Lehtinen. Ros-Lehtinen’s husband was the US Attorney in Miami at the time and she was a candidate for US Congress. Martinez was considering a challenge against her, in which the husband of Ros-Lehtinen responded by indicting Martinez on bogus charges. In the end, not only was Martinez acquitted, Ros-Lehtinen’s husband was forced to resign for abusing his office for political gain. Therefore, it’s fair to say that Martinez has learned to overcome obstacles through personal experience. Lincoln Diaz-Balart has been a straight vote for Bush and the Republican agenda, even when the vote had negative consequences to his own district. One issue which Diaz-Balart will not be able to use against Martinez is accusations of him being pro-Castro (a technique which Republicans exploit in South Florida). The election will essentially come down to who is speaking on behalf of young voters (those under 30) and historically these voters have been aligned with Democrats, even in the Cuban strongholds of South Florida. If Diaz-Balart does lose he can thank Bush, his party, and his brother (he was the one who helped draw the district when he was in the state legislature).
Rating: Too Close to Call
24th – Feeney (R) – New Smyrna Beach, Oviedo, and Titusville.
Anyone familiar with Florida politics would tell you that Tom Feeney was corrupt before he even landed in Washington. In fact, as Florida Speaker of the House, Feeney devised ways of creating his own rules and attacking those that disagreed with his heavy handed tactics. Since coming to Washington he has consistently been named one of the most corrupt politicians. In his 2006 race for re-election he only took 58% of the vote against a weak, poorly funded challenger. This year Democrats have scored a much stronger candidate to take out the Feeney corrupt machine. Former state representative Suzanne Kosmas hails from Volusia County, the Democratic part of the district. The Republican stronghold for the district is Seminole County, yet even this area has gradually become less Republican. Kosmas has proven the ability to raise funds and has even outpaced Feeney in the process (guess all of his corrupt buddies decided he was no longer worth funding). Feeney’s voting has been strongly conservative, even though the district can best be summarized as being moderate. Kosmas brings the moderate record minus the corruption back to the district. While in the state legislature Feeney and his corrupt counterpart Katherine Harris, then Secretary of State, were strong supporters of George W. Bush. As a thank you for his support, Feeney was rewarded: he was chosen as a Bush elector in 2000 and promised that one of the two new congressional districts would be drawn specifically for Feeney. However, it seems that Feeney’s corruption and arrogance have managed to negate the “Safe Republican” nature of his district. Republicans lead in registration, yet the district possesses one thing which Feeney lacks: morals and honesty. Kosmas will bring change and dignity back to the office, defeating Feeney rather soundly.
Rating: Leans Democrat
25th – Diaz-Balart, Mario (R) – Homestead and Naples.
Since creating his own district while in the state legislature, Mario Diaz-Balart has never faced stiff competition. The Democratic nominee is Joe Garcia, Chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. Garcia’s past positions and current involvement with the Cuban-American community presents an unknown challenge to Diaz-Balart. The one question Diaz-Balart must answer first is how he can overcome a challenge when he never seriously faced one in the past. Also, how could he have miscalculated the safety of his own seat, when drafting congressional district lines during reapportionment. What Diaz-Balart and many other close-minded politicians fail to calculate at time of reapportionment is that party registration and demographics are just a part of winning, not the key to winning. Diaz-Balart failed to realize that another Cuban-American could cancel out any advantage he enjoyed. Furthermore, he failed to realize that the Republican nature of the district would certainly decline in time. Now, due to his own miscalculation, Diaz-Balart finds himself fending off a challenger, yet unsure of what a winning strategy involves. Many of the Republican voters are Cuban and could vote for either candidate. Both candidates are fundraising and have sufficient funds to attack eachother. Diaz-Balart has legislative experience, yet he has no “real” experience running a campaign. The later may force him to stumble and make mistakes throughout (unfortunately brother is too busy dealing with his own problems to provide any strategic input). Diaz-Balart could invite McCain to campaign with him, yet that could create problems with the electorate, now that McCain has been perceived as abandoning immigration reform. Just as with his brother’s district, the winner will be determined by a younger generation of voters. A loss is not something Diaz-Balart has prepared for, yet after being a Bush soldier for so long it was only a matter of time before strong competition would appear. A very narrow advantage lies with Diaz-Balart, yet that will gradually shrink as Garcia’s name recognition circulates throughout the district.
Rating: Leans Republican
GEORGIA
8th – Jim Marshall (D) – Macon, Moultrie, and Warner Robins.
Following redistricting, under the then controlled Democratic legislature, Jim Marshall ran and won a close race. He then ran against the same opponent in 2004 and defeated him soundly. Yet when Democrats had lost control of the legislature, following the 2004 election, Republicans decide to undertake a mid-decade redistricting. They decided to make Marshall’s district far more Republican. Furthermore, former congressman Mac Collins, decided to run against Marshall. The outcome was a close race and Marshall defied Republicans, defeating Collins. Challenging Marshall this year will be Republican Rick Goddard, former Commander at Warner Robins Air Force Base. Going into the election Marshall has three times as much funds over Goddard. An additional advantage is that 30% of the electorate is African-American, many of whom are first time voters. A year prior to the election in 2006, much of the territory was newly added, yet since then, Marshall has represented his constituency over a longer period of time. His position on the Armed Services and Agriculture Committees are also benefits, especially being in the majority. The likelihood is that being in the majority has allowed Marshall to bring more funds into his district, then was practical prior to 2006. Recent gains by Democrats in the South (Cazayoux and Childers) are clear indicators that African Americans have clearly become more engaged. Therefore, while Marshall will have a competitive race, the likelihood is that if Republicans couldn’t beat him in 2006, even with Bush’s assistance, then their chances this year are even lower.
Rating: Leans Democrat
12th – Barrow (D) – Augusta, Savannah, and Statesboro.
Republicans have finally realized one thing: Max Burns was really an accidental congressman. Burns victory in 2002 was the result of an ethically challenged Democratic nominee. It was in the 2004 election that John Barrow knocked off Burns. After the Republican state legislature redrew the boundaries of the district, making it way more Republican and eliminating the liberal city of Athens, many had expected that Barrow could not survive a challenge by Burns, yet he too defied the Republican scheme. This year Republicans have nominated John Stone, a sacrificial lamb candidate, to take on Barrow. The district voter registration is 41% African-American and Barrow’s fundraising has been too impressive. He currently has $1.1M on hand versus $8K for Stone.
Rating: Safe Democrat